Pay-TV is struggling to survive COVID-19.

Before the onset of the pandemic, Nielsen reported that 69% of Southeast Michigan area households received their television programs from cable systems, telephone companies, or satellite operators.  That number, however, is plummeting.

Pay-TV providers in the Detroit area include Xfinity, Dish, AT&T TV, Spectrum, and DirecTV.

"Cord-cutting, people dropping their cable and satellite TV subscriptions, pre-dates the onset of Covid-19. But the pandemic is exaggerating the trend, creating deeper issuers for programming that relies on those services for distribution," Eric Savitz wrote last week in Barron's.  This includes non-premium services like ESPN, TBS, TNT, USA, CNN, and Discovery.

"LightShed Partners analyst Richard Greenfield counts a loss of 1.96 million subscribers to cable, satellite TV, and virtual cable services combined in the first quarter," Savitz continued. "This is the worst combined quarterly drop ever, down 6% from a year ago."

Greenfield said in an interview with Barron’s that what is especially sobering is that most of the first quarter activity pre-dated the virus. The numbers are likely to get considerably worse in the second quarter.

How quickly the millennials have grown up.

According to Nielsen, 61% of all Detroit area parents with children under the age of 18 are millennials.  

From the time their kids are born until they reach they are 17, these young parents will spend, on average, $233,000 per child. This does not include the cost of college.

Currently, there are 993,688 children under the age of 18 living in Metro Detroit. That makes the local millennial-parenting economy worth upwards of $231 billion. These dollars are being spent, among other things, on diapers, daycare, transportation, toys, education, electronics, clothing, and health care.

For Southeast Michigan small business owners interested in competing for a substantial portion of this multi-billion dollar pool of parental cash, they must advertise to millennial moms and dads. By almost any measurement, advertising on Detroit radio is the best way to reach this audience.

Retailers in Southeast Michigan rang-up $78,314,821,000 in retail sales last year, according to Nielsen. But wait. It's about to get better.

The National Retail Federation forecasts that in 2020, sales will increase by as much as 4.1%. This will create another $3.2 billion for local small business owners.  

“The economy is growing at a more modest pace, but the underlying economic fundamentals remain in place and are positive,” stated NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz. “Consumers remain upbeat and have the confidence to spend, and the steady wage growth that has come with the strong job market is fueling their spending. The state of the consumer is very healthy.

To claim a fair share of this enlarged pool of spending will require Metro Detroit small business owners to advertise.

“Think you have a great product?” asks the U.S. Small Business Administration. “Unfortunately, no one’s going to know about it unless you advertise.”  

It's time to set some misguided Southeast Michigan small business owners straight: When we say everybody listens to Detroit radio stations, we mean everybody.  Generations X, Y, and Z. Also, Boomers, and, yes, the millennial generation.

You know...millennials. Those are the "kids" who came of age at the turn of the millennium (which is, debatably, either 2000 or 2001).  This means 18-34 year olds. 

In Metro Detroit, 970,000 millennials make-up 29% of the adult population and will deliver $24.4 billion to local cash registers.

But here's the thing about millennials that many Michigan small business owners get wrong: millennials listen to the radio.  Almost all of them. 91.6% of them, to be exact.

There is alarming news for small business owners who advertise on Detroit television stations: broadcast TV viewers are disappearing at a rapid pace.

Nielsen reports that halfway through the first quarter of this year, the number of people using television has dropped 7.5%. This compares to -6.3% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and -7.0% a year ago,

"If the trend holds, it would represent the largest quarterly decline for TV viewership in our data set," explains UBS analyst John C. Hodulikadding. "Trends have worsened across most age demos with persons 25-34 now falling -17% vs. low double-digit declines throughout 2019. The persons 55+ demo continues to trend down -2%, similar to 2019 (the first year of declining ratings for the demo)."

Radio listenership, on the other hand, has remained quite stable, according to Nielsen. Since 1970, the medium has reached more than 9-in-10 consumers every week.